My 7 Exclusive Football Betting Strategy

In your pursuit of the perfect way to win money betting on football you may have come across some strategies which appear too go to be true.

  • Avoid paid strategies
  • Use my free strategies
  • There is always a risk

When I am looking for new recipes and ideas, I often come across dishes which are very cheap to prepare but according to the author, are the best tasting dishes I will ever eat.  When I see these, I am always tempted to try them but I end up with something which tastes bad.

I always knew there was a risk the dish was not going to be as good as promised and the same applies when adopting a football betting strategy.  Many online gamblers end up losing a lot of money because the pay to join a football strategy which promises them huge profits yet fails to deliver.

With that in mind, how would you like access to my own exclusive football betting strategies?

I do not promise you will always make a profit when using them but what I will give you is a fair and honest description of the football betting strategy and what you can expect when using it.

Sounds good?

Continue reading below for my exclusive football betting strategies.

1. Back and Lay

When cooking in my kitchen, I am aiming to prepare the best dish possible for my customers.  Even when cooking at home, I always try my best to get the perfect outcome as I love great tasting, freshly prepared food.

However, sometimes I must react quickly to changes in my plan and that means going against my original recipe in favour of one of my standard recipes from a huge catalogue I keep.  The back and lay football betting strategy is very similar to this and could make a nice profit when applied properly.

To begin, you must understand a back bet is when you place a bet at a traditional online bookmaker.  It could be Real Madrid to win for example.  A lay bet is placed at a betting exchange and you are essentially betting for something not to happen.

So, backing is betting on something to happen while laying is betting for something not to happen.

This takes us into the back and lay football betting strategy.  The easiest way to do this is to bet on the outcome of a game, such as Real Madrid to beat Barcelona.  You think this match will end in a win for either team so you lay the draw at odds of 4.5 with €10 at the betting exchange.  Real Madrid take the lead and the odds for the draw increase at the bookmaker to 6.0.

You can back the draw using live in-play betting at the bookmaker using €6.50 as your stake.  Regardless of the outcome of the game you will make a profit.  It may not be significant but if the game in the example ends in a draw you will make €3 profit and if either team wins you will make €3.50 profit.

As with any form of football betting strategy, things still need to work in your favour.  A goal being scored in the example above worked in my favour and allowed me to back the draw at increased odds.  However, back and lay betting is a good way to make a profit and is one of my favourite football betting strategies.

  • Understand back and lay
  • Use a betting exchange
  • Follow the match live

2. Value Bets

When preparing food in my kitchen there are some things which always need to be in place for it to work.  When cooking under pressure I must think quickly about what ingredients will come together to make a great dish and my knowledge and experience helps in this situation.

It is possible for any dish to go wrong and the same applies to betting but if you can understand how to pick a value bet you will be as close to guaranteeing a profit betting on football as possible.

What you consider to be a value bet may be different to another gambler and that is what makes value betting a personal football betting strategy.  A value bet is one where you believe the probability of an even happening in a football match, such as a home win, is higher than the bookmaker believes.

So, if you see Liverpool’s chances of winning a match at a bookmaker at 5.00, which is a 20% chance of winning but you believe they have more like a 25% chance of winning the game, this bet represents value.  Someone else might disagree with you and that’s why value betting is a personal football betting strategy.

Using the formula (odds x probability%) / 100  you can calculate the value of a bet.  Using the example above, the odds were 5.00 but we believed there was a 25% chance of Liverpool winning which gives us odds of 4.00.  Using the equation, (5 x 25) / 100 = 1.25  and if the answer is above 1, as in this case, you have a value bet on your hands.

If you work hard and become good at spotting value, this is arguably the best football betting strategy available.

  • Personal choice
  • Find value
  • Use the equation

3. Matched Bets

There are a set number of recipes I can turn to and I know they will produce great results every time.  I can rely on these recipes to come out of the oven exactly the same way whenever I cook them and that’s great when I need something everyone will enjoy.

Much like in my kitchen, there are some strategies I will turn to for guaranteed results and one such football betting strategy is matched betting.

This is the only football betting strategy I would say comes without a risk.  Clearly, we all make mistakes, I have cut myself with a knife when chopping vegetables for example and it is possible to make a mistake due to human error.  However as far as football betting strategies are concerned, matched betting is the most reliable.

The recipe required for this football betting strategy is similar to the first one and you must place back and lay bets at a bookmaker and betting exchange.  Where matched betting differs is in the fact you will be using bookmaker promotions to make a guaranteed profit on your football bets.

The promotions you will be using is where a bookmaker offers to match your bet with a free bet.  By laying off the bet you make with the bookmaker at the betting exchange and receiving the free bet, you cannot lose.

Once you receive your free bet, you can lay it off to make sure you make a profit.  It is possible, with care and attention, to make a profit every week using matched betting.  Bookmakers are always generating new promotions for new and current customers and you can use them to make a profit thanks to matched betting.

It takes time and careful planning to execute matched betting properly but once you have gained experience and have a plan in place, it will become your ‘go-to’ football betting strategy.

  • Close to being risk free
  • Use promotions
  • Back and lay betting

4. A Mathematical Approach

When competing in cooking competitions, I sometimes need to invest big in my ingredients.  I know I am capable of creating fantastic food but without top quality ingredients the end product would not be at its very best.  It can seem a little scary to spend a lot of money on quality ingredients when there is no guarantee I will win the competition.

In the beginning, to gain experience of competitive cooking, I stayed on the safe side of things and was conservative in my dishes but have since expanded to spend more on ingredients to produce something lavish.

The same principle is applied when using a mathematical approach to football betting called the Kelly Criterion.

This football betting strategy uses a formula and a bank roll system to make a profit.  You are still required to find value bets, the probability of winning and work out the optimal sized bet.  Please check the example below to see the Kelly Criterion at work.

You have found odds of Burnley to beat Arsenal at 5.00, which is a 20% chance of winning.  You notice Arsenal have been struggling away from home and have a European match in mid-week plus believe Burnley have a better chance of winning than the odds suggest.  You think it is closer to 30%, which makes the probability of failure 0.70.

Now you can plug the information into the formula below:

Bank Roll % to Bet = (odds – 1 x probability) – probability of failure / odds – 1 

In terms of our bet, the formula will look like this:

Bank Roll % to Bet = (4.00 x 0.30) – 0.70 / 4 = 0.125 = 12.5%

That means you will be using 12.5% of your bank roll on this outcome.  If you start with €100 for example, you would bet €12.50.

This is quite an aggressive football betting strategy and relies on you to find value bets.  To begin, you are advised to be conservative and do not overestimate the probability of the chance of winning.  This will prevent you from betting a large chunk of your bank roll in the early stages and get you on the way to making a nice little profit.

  • Mathematical approach
  • Using a bank roll
  • Value bets are key

5. Leaving it to the Last Minute

I like to be as prepared as possible in the kitchen but sometimes, I will be asked to cook a dish at the last minute.  Perhaps some guests have arrived late and want a vegetarian option or I have been asked to step in at a dinner because the original chef is not available.

These situations are good for me because although I must drop what I was doing, it makes me a lot of money.  This situation relates to another football betting strategy I like to use which involves the scoring of late goals.

The key to betting on late goals is in-play betting and watching the match live.  If a match is level going into the final 15 minutes, the odds for either team to win the match will have increased significantly.  The draw will be the favourite outcome and if a game is 2-2 going into the final 15 minutes, the draw could be as little as 1.33 with the bookmaker.

A home win could be out at 4.00, while the away win is priced at 7.00.  As you can see, the odds are very nice but that is because time is running out for there to be another goal in the game.  However, if a goal is scored late in the match, it is likely to be the final goal of the game.

The key to this football betting strategy is watching the game live.  If you have access to a live stream or television coverage of the match, you can make a judgement on the flow of the game and what is at stake for both teams.  Does one team need the win more than the other?  Is one team creating a lot of chances and pushing for the win?  Is the team which needs to win the game piling forward but creating very little and looking susceptible to the counter-attack?  These are just three examples of what could be happening as we enter the final 15 minutes.

Clearly this football betting strategy requires your own judgement on what is most likely to happen.  If the two teams appear to be cancelling each other out, then you will decide not to place a bet at all.  However, if you strongly believe one of the teams is going to score and win the game, you could place a bet at a great odds.

  • Live Betting
  • Home or Away win
  • Follow the flow of the match

6. Low Risk Multiples

When I am asked to provide the food for a big event, with a lot of people I must decide on which dishes I can use and what is most reliable.  Cooking for a large number of people is tricky but I have a set menu of dishes I know I can rely on and people will enjoy.

I always turn to these dishes and combined they make for a very appetising meal for guests and the feedback is always excellent.  The same applies when betting on football and using heavy favourites together is a football strategy I like when I have enough funds available to place the bet.

The main issue when betting on low risk multiples is having the funds available to make it worth your while.  You will need to identify at least three favourites for this football strategy to work and the lesser known the leagues and teams involved the better.

Every league around the world has heavy favourites for games but if you choose less popular leagues such as the second division of the Swiss, Spanish or Austrian leagues for example, you will find better odds available for favourites.

You could bet on the match winner, over/under 1.5 goals and favourites to score as a treble and back the team which is the heavy favourite in each.  If you would rather stick to one market, you could back winners from three different games, it doesn’t really matter.

What does matter is the size of the stake and you must have a reasonable amount of money to bet otherwise the returns will not be worthwhile.  Begin with a fund you can afford to lose and build it up using this football betting strategy.  You can either take out a percentage of the winnings each time or continue to build the stake to make a greater profit with each bet.

As with any football betting strategy, this one comes with risks despite backing the heavy favourites.  These is always the chance of an upset, however unlikely it is to happen, so never bet more than you can afford.

  • Backing the favourites
  • Combine bets
  • Big stake required

7. Over/Under with a Difference

There is one dish for which I am famous and when most people come to my restaurant for the first time, they will order the same thing.  It is very expensive but the quality of the food is exceptional, even if I do say so myself!

However, if they looked at the menu closely, they will see a very similar dish for almost half the price.  The quality is not to the same standard but it is a great alternative for those with a smaller budget or want to try something different.

I liken this situation to the over/under goals market in football betting.  The majority of casual punters will always turn to the over/under 2.5 goals market for their betting but I have devised a superior football betting strategy using over/under 1.5 goals.

To begin, do some research around the football leagues you know well as you will need to choose a minimum of 10 matches each weekend for this strategy to reap rewards.  Select the matches you believe will see over 1.5 goals.  The odds for over 2.5 goals are usually a good indicator of which games will see over 1.5 goals but you must use your own knowledge of the teams involved in the game to decide.

You are likely to find odds of no higher than 1.40 on over 1.5 goals but that’s fine because you will be betting on more than one match each weekend.  You will need to have a fund of €50 per bet for this to work.

If you place of €50 at 1.20 for over 1.5 goals you will receive €60 in return, which is a €10 profit.  It is not a massive amount but if completed over 10 matches, you will end the weekend with a profit of €100 if every bet was a success.

Even if you were successful in 8 of the 10 bets placed, you will still make €80, which is not bad over the course of one weekend.  The statistics are in our favour when it comes to betting on over 1.5 goals as between 70-80% of football matches see over 1.5 goals scored.  However, you must complete thorough research to find the games which have the best chance of seeing over 1.5 goals before placing your bets.

  • Over/Under 1.5 goals
  • Use knowledge to select the matches
  • Place at least 10 bets

You now have access to my top football betting strategies.  Select the football betting strategy which best suits your style and budget and see how much profit you can make.  As mentioned before, there is no guarantee you will make money when betting on football, so never bet more than you can afford to lose.

I hope you enjoyed this insight into my football betting strategies and look forward to seeing you in my kitchen again soon.